| Session Details | |
| Section | AS - Atmospheric Sciences |
| Session Title | Asian Monsoon Variability and Predictability |
| Main Convener | Dr. Ramesh Kripalani (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India) |
| Co-convener(s) | Dr. Jai-Ho jhoh@pknu.ac.kr (Pukyong National university, Korea, South) |
| Session Description | Subject: AOGS 2008 Session Proposal: Busan, South Korea Session: Atmospheric Sciences (AS) Convener: Dr. R.H.Kripalani Scientist E Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Pashan, Pune 411008, India Email: krip@tropmet.res.in; krip888@yahoo.com Co-Convener: Prof Jai-Ho Oh Department of Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences, Pukyong National University, Busan, South Korea Email: jhoh@pknu.ac.kr Proposed Session Title: Asian Monsoon Variability and Predictability More than half of the world population lives under the influence of the Asian Monsoons. While the intra-seasonal (prolonged dry and wet spells) and inter-annual (extreme deficient and excess seasons) summer monsoon precipitation variability could have an adverse impact on the economy and the agricultural outputs, the decadal variability could have a bearing on the availability of water resources. With the United Nations clearly stating that the “Time for doubt has passed on Climate Change”, the Asian monsoon itself may be affected by intensive anthropogenic activities. Hence forecasting monsoon precipitation over various regions of Asia on intra-seasonal and seasonal time scales and its future projections assume profound importance. Global modeling groups have been making concerted efforts to address these issues. While the climate modeling groups around the world have performed unprecedented climate change experiments from the 20th up to the 22nd century under various green-house gas emission scenarios for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (now designated as World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3: WCRP CMIP3), the European Community have performed experiments with observed sea surface temperatures and initial conditions for the last two decades under the DEMETER (Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble for seasonal-to-inter-annual prediction) and ENSEMBLES (Ensembles based Predictions of Climate Changes and their impacts) projects. Outputs of all the model runs mentioned above are available to the international scientific community for analysis. Realistic simulation of the summer monsoon precipitation features over the Asian domain, in particular over South Asia has still been a challenge for the modeling community. Current understanding on these important scientific issues of Asian monsoon is limited; hence this session invites contributions on the following topics: (i) Analysis and discussion of the simulations and hind casts of monsoon precipitation over various regions of the Asia under the DEMETER and ENSEMBLES Projects. This will give us an idea of the current seasonal prediction skills of these models and model biases. (ii) Projections of future monsoons over Asia in particular over South and East Asia based on the outputs of the WCRP CMIP3 experiments. This could help to assess future climate change under the Global Warming Stress and uncertainties in future projections. (iii) Analysis of observed data and results based on Regional Climate Models which could serve as useful guides for forecasting / projections of monsoon precipitation over the monsoonal regions of Asia The above also form some of the important objectives of MAIRS (Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study). Hence papers on the above and related issues are invited. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |