| Session Details | |
| Section | AS - Atmospheric Sciences |
| Session Title | Predictability of weather and climate: Theory and Methodology |
| Main Convener | Prof. Mu Mu (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China) |
| Co-convener(s) | Dr. Olivier Talagrand (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, France) Prof. Fuqing Zhang (Texas A&M University, United States) |
| Session Description | Accurate predictions of weather and climate have enormous social and economic values but remain to have significant uncertainties at all time and spatial scales. The difficulties and challenges may come from uncertainties in the initial conditions and/or errors in the forecast models. Moreover, nonlinearity and chaotic processes may amplify both sources of uncertainties that lead to the loss of predictability. This session will focus on the predictability of different weather and climate phenomena from thunderstorms, torrential rains, tropical cyclones and typhoons to ENSO and climate change with time scales ranging from a few hours to centuries . Both theoretical and methodological research papers are welcome. The main topics include but not limit to: Determining the intrinsic limit of flow- and scale dependent predictability; Identifying key nonlinear and chaotic dynamics processes that limit predictability; Quantifying practical predictabilities of both deterministic and probabilistic weather and climate forecasts; Identifying and quantifying uncertainties in initial and/or boundary conditions and/or external forcing and/or model errors; and Exploring approaches to reduce the above uncertainties such as through better observing systems, data assimilation, ensemble forecast and target observations. |