| Session Details | |
| Section | SE - Solid Earth Sciences |
| Session Title | The Science of Forecasting in Complex Earthquake Fault Systems |
| Main Convener | Dr. John B. Rundle (UC Davis, United States) |
| Co-convener(s) | Dr. Xiang-Chu Yin (China Earthquake Administration, China) Dr. Kristy Tiampo (University of Western Ontario, Canada) |
| Session Description | The science of earthquake forecasting and prediction is experiencing renewed interest as a result of the advances in data bases, numerical simulations, models, and pattern recognition and analysis techniques. Forecasting is complicated by the fact that the fundamental underlying stress-strain dynamics cannot be generally observed. Moreover, the physics of earthquakes is characterized by a large range of spatial and temporal scales. As a result, forecasting methods must be developed based on incomplete information originating from observed seismic events, deformation, and other types of data. Forecasting of earthquakes and other extreme events in complex natural systems has been considerably enhanced by the rise of modern information technology and associated simulations, visualization, and data bases. Talks in this session will be encouraged that discuss utility of new and existing forecasting methods for earthquakes, new statistical tests for forecast verification and evaluation, information gain, entropy analysis, ensemble methods, simulation-based methods, and their analysis via novel data mining and visualization techniques. We also encourage submissions of papers describing how new data can be used to test and improve forecast methods. |