| Session Details | |
| Section | AS - Atmospheric Sciences OS - Ocean Sciences |
| Session Title | Advances in Data Assimilation and Forecast Systems for Ocean-Atmosphere Variability |
| Main Convener | Dr. Fei Zheng (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China) |
| Co-convener(s) | Dr. Yosuke Fujii (Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan) Prof. Jin-Yi Yu (University of California, Irvine, United States) Dr. Noel Keenlyside (University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre, Norway) |
| Session Description | Uncertainties in predicting climate variability on range of temporal and spatial scales (e.g., ENSO, IOD, MJO, Pacific and Atlantic decadal varibility, and etc.) significantly increased over the past decade, especially when El Niño has changed noticeably in its intensity, occurrence frequency, and particularly location. These difficulties/challenges in prediction arise mainly from uncertainties in the initial conditions and forecast models. The successful application of advanced data assimilation techniques to numerical climate forecasting systems has led to an increased interest in their use for the initialization of coupled atmosphere-ocean models for seasonal to decadal predictions. Improving the combination of observations and dynamical models by data assimilation systems also can underpin many advances in our understanding of the natural variability, and our ability to model and forecast it. This session invites researchers to share their novel approaches (for example in data assimilation and ensemble prediction) for improving predictions over the tropical and extratropical regions, as well as for gaining understanding of the causes and mechanisms for ocean-atmosphere variability. Modeling, theoretical, and observational studies on all these aspects are solicited. |