Axford Lecture
Title: Evolution of Global Hydrology in the Anthropocene
Mon-28 Jul, PM1 16:00 to 18:00


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Taikan OKI

The University of Tokyo

Speaker Biography

Prof. Taikan Oki is a Special Advisor to the President of University of Tokyo, and a Professor at the Graduate School of Engineering in the university. He received his Ph.D in Civil Engineering at The University of Tokyo in 1993, and his previous academic positions include Associate Professor with the Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo and Associate Professor with the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature located in Kyoto, Japan. He was also affiliated as the Senior Vice-Rector, United Nations University, and an Assistant Secretary-General, United Nations for 2016-2021. His areas of expertise are global hydrology, world water resources, climate change, and sustainable development including the virtual water trade and water footprint. He was one of the coordinating lead authors for Chapter 3 “Freshwater Resources” of the IPCC WGII AR5, and a review editor for Chapter 8 “Poverty, Livelihoods and Sustainable Development” of IPCC WGII AR6. He is the first Japanese AGU Fellow in its Hydrology Section with quotes "For interdisciplinary research and leadership bridging hydrology, climate, and sustainability through numerical modeling and scientific analysis." He became a full member of the Club of Rome and the Science Council of Japan since October 2020, and he was the President of the Japan Society for Hydrology and Water Resources (2022-24). He has been the recipient of several awards such as the Japan Academy Medal in 2008, the Biwako Prize for Ecology in 2011, the International Hydrology Prize (Dooge medal) in 2021, John Dalton Meal (EGU) in 2023, Medal with Purple Ribbon from His Majesty the Emperor of Japan in 2024, and the Stockholm Water Prize in 2024.


Abstract

Starting in 1968, a series of droughts hit the Sahel region till early 80s and approximately 100,000 people died due to food shortages and disease. Charney (1975) first hypothesized the positive vegetation-rainfall feedback for the desertification and drought in the Sahel.

However, at the time, information on global energy and water cycles that drive the climate was extremely limited. Therefore, GEWEX was planned under WCRP, and an international study on water and energy cycles was comprehensively carried out using field observations, Earth observations from space, and objective analysis data using four-dimensional data assimilation, which was just beginning at the time.

Under GEWEX, an international research project, Global Soil Wetness Project, was carried out to calculate the energy and water balances at the land surface based on observed meteorological forcings, such as precipitation, solar radiation, wind, temperature, humidity, using LSMs (land surface models) (Dirmeyer et al., 2006), and the global water cycle was estimated, leading to a modern schematic diagram on it (Oki and Kanae, 2006).

On the other hand, when the global distribution of precipitation-evapotranspiration was calculated using the atmospheric water balance method, it showed a good correspondence with river runoff on an annual average, as expected from the land surface water balance, but there were some areas in the world where water vapor is “welling up” from land, mainly in semi-arid areas, i.e., the amount of evapotranspiration is greater than the amount of precipitation. Ground observation data for rivers also revealed areas where the flow rate upstream is greater than the flow rate downstream. This shows that in the Anthropocene, where human activity is affecting the global environment, it is necessary to simulate the real water cycle, which is strongly influenced by human activities such as storage, discharge, and withdrawal, rather than pristine nature without human activity, even on a global scale. Accordingly, hydrological cycle and water resource models that incorporate human activities such as storage and discharge in reservoirs, water conveyance through canals, groundwater pumping, and irrigation of farmland have been developed, and are being used for evaluating global water supply and demand and for assessing the impact of climate change.

The emergence of global hydrology has made it possible to build early warning systems for water-related disasters such as floods, droughts, storm surges, and landslides, and to predict future impacts considering climate change and social changes, contributing to the promotion of academic research and reducing the risk of water-related disasters in society and enhancing the blessings of water.

This modern development of global hydrology has been made possible thanks to remarkable advances in information and communication technology, which have made it possible to access big data from earth observation satellites and other sources, enable large-scale numerical calculations covering the entire planet, and enable researchers scattered around the world to share knowledge, experience, data, and sometimes even numerical calculation codes. Global hydrology is thus a community science, and an overview of its development will be introduced.





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