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AOGS 17th Annual Meeting

28 Jun - 4 Jul 2020
Sono Belle Vivaldi Park, Hongcheon

SS01 – The Asian Monsoon in a Changing Climate

Thu-02 Jul 2020 | 13:30 – 15:30 | Tower B, Lavender II

Bin WANG
University of Hawaii

“Future Change of Monsoon Rainfall Projected by Cmip6 Models”

Bin WANG1#+, Chunhan JIN2, Jian LIU2

1University of Hawaii, 2Nanjing Normal University


Projecting future change of monsoon rainfall is essential for water resource management, food security, disaster mitigation, and infrastructure planning. Here we assess the change toward the end of 21st century using 15 models that participated in phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multi-model ensemble projects, under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5), the total land monsoon rainfall (LMR) will likely increase in the northern hemisphere (NH) by about 2.8%/1oC in contrast with little change in the southern hemisphere (SH, -0.3% /1oC). The annual ranges of LMR will increase by about 6% in both hemispheres with wetter summer and drier winter. The monsoonal rainy season as a whole will be lengthened in the NH by about ten days due to later withdrawal but shortened in the SH by five days due to delayed onset. The overall change pattern features a robust NH-SH asymmetry and an east-west asymmetry with significantly enhanced Asian-northern African monsoons and weakened North American monsoon. These changes are attributed to the circulation change and increased specific humidity that are induced by greenhouse gases (GHGs) radiative forcing. In monsoon regions, the increased specific humidity is spatially uniform, but the rainfall change is not. Circulation changes play a significant role in shaping the spatial patterns and intensity of global monsoon changes. GHGs-induced horizontally differential heating results in a robust “NH-warmer than-SH” and “land-warmer than-ocean” pattern, which enhances Asian and northern African monsoon rainfall; it also yields a warmer equatorial eastern Pacific, which reduces American monsoon rainfall. The GHGs-induced top-heavy heating, on the other hand, stabilizes the atmosphere, suppresses ascent, and provides a negative impact on precipitation intensity.


Biography


 

Organized by:
aogs  aogs
Supported By:
gwcb
Korean Society of Earth and Exploration Geophysicists
The Geological Society of Korea
The Korean Society of Oceanography
Korean Meteorological Society
Korean Society of Atmospheric Environment
The Korean Space Science Society
The Korean Astronomical Society
The Korean Society of Economic and Environmental Geology
The Korean Society of Remote Sensing
The Korean Association of Geographic
Information Studies